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Polymarket

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Using the Polymarket toolkit on Toolforest, pull the full win-probability history for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, identify who the crowd is backing today, and tell me whether the current leader has always been the favourite — or if there's a better story hiding in the data.

Tools: polymarket.search_marketspolymarket.get_market_history

Using the Polymarket toolkit on Toolforest, pull the full win-probability history for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, identify who the crowd is backing today, and tell me whether the current leader has always been the favourite — or if there’s a better story hiding in the data.

Step 1 — Discover the market

Executing polymarket.search_markets

One hit: event 30615 — Winner of 2026 FIFA World Cup, total volume $959M. Top outcomes today are France 17.9%, Spain 16.4%, England 11.5%, Brazil 8.9%. France just retook the lead.

Step 2 — Pull price histories

Executing polymarket.get_market_history Executing polymarket.get_market_history

294 daily France candles and 307 daily Spain candles, July 2025 through today. Enough to see the full arc of how the crowd has been pricing the favorite over the ten months leading into kickoff.

France wasn’t always the story

Rewind to early March 2026 and France was the fourth outcome on this market — behind Spain, England, and Brazil — at a 10.6% trough. The recovery to today’s 17.9% happened in eight weeks and is one of the largest sustained moves the market has seen.

Line chart of 2026 FIFA World Cup win probability on Polymarket, July 2025 through May 2026. Three series: France (teal) opens at 16.5%, drifts down through autumn, troughs at 10.6% on March 3 2026, then sharply recovers to 17.9% today. Spain (coral) opens at 16%, climbs to a 20.5% peak in late October 2025, then slowly drifts down to 16.4%. England (dotted purple) sits flat in an 10.5–11.5% band the whole year.
2026 FIFA World Cup winner — daily win probability for the three most-traded outcomes.

Spain’s hidden peak and slow fade

Spain was the autumn story. 20.5% peak on Oct 20 2025, well above any other outcome at the time. From there it’s been a slow, near-monotonic drift down — a six-month bleed to 16.4% today. No single catalyst, just the steady realization that La Roja’s pre-tournament form wasn’t holding up against a regrouped France.

France’s 10% trough — and the comeback

The trough was March 3 — France at 10.6%, the lowest the market has ever priced them. The reversal began April 5 when Mbappé’s fitness announcement cleared up the injury concerns that had been bleeding the price all winter. Volume surged the same day and France crossed back above Spain three weeks later. Today: 17.9%, top of the board.

What $959M of crowd wisdom says

The depth of this market is hard to overstate — $959M traded over ten months, with daily candles smooth enough to read narrative shifts off cleanly. Kickoff is June 11 in Los Angeles. The crowd’s read going in: France is the favorite again, but only narrowly. Spain still has 16.4% of the action, England’s still the third-favorite at 11.5%, and the spread between the top four is the tightest it’s been all cycle.